Steve Jobs hasn't attended a conference call in years. So even an attempt to imply that Jobs' lack of presence at the conference call yesterday is related to health concerns, is either driven by a motivation to manipulate the stock price or is said with a complete lack of knowledge of how Apple's management operates things at Apple (and probably a complete lack of knowledge on Apple's fundamentals altogether).
I for one believe some hedge fund(s) decided to manipulate Apple's stock price yesterday, and spread rumors about Steve Jobs' questionable health (as if they're all physicians) via the New York Post article. Otherwise, how does one explain the highly "coincidental" "concern" over Steve Jobs' health that is raised on the day Apple happens to report earnings? The issue of Jobs' health is old news. It was brought up over a month ago, and almost no one has even remotely mentioned the issue ever since. Yet, right when earnings rolls in, it happens to be the focal point of Apple's earnings report. The fact that Apple once again smashed consensus estimates and the whisper numbers across the board doesn't matter. Only Jobs' fictitious health problems diagnosed by Hedge Fund Mangers, MD matters here.
Apple is the only stock that I know of that goes down 10% despite beating every single analyst's expectations (according to Thomson Financial) across all categories: Mac Sales, iPod Sales, Revenue and EPS beat everyone's expectations. GOOG, RIMM and MSFT missed on their earnings results and fell either less than Apple did or about the same as Apple did after earnings. And they missed! Moreover, Apple fell a combined total of $15.00 on other company's earnings results. Apple fell $6.66 on Google miss and about $9.00 on RIMM's miss.
So Apple is now down over $30.00 on earnings reports despite the fact that it beat expectations. And the whole guidance thing is just complete nonsense. No one should listen to anything Apple has to say regarding the future. It's guidance is meaningless. Yet, Apple will not go up a single quarter as long as we're in a shaky market no matter what Apple posts in earnings. Why? Because the market will just continue to simply ignore the fact that Apple gives conservative guidance that it always smashes. And as irrational as Wall Street's misplaced focus of Apple's guidance is, there is nothing that can be done about it.
Moreover, there is nothing that can be done about the obvious manipulation by Hedge Funds and obvious misreporting by the media. What this should tell investors is that Apple's earnings has become the easiest short on Wall Street. This past earnings results confirmed this. Fool me once (Q1 Earnings) shame on you, fool me twice (Q3 Earnings) shame on me..
Disclosure: Long Apple for now.
7 comments:
I concur and feel both your pain and frustration.
What appalls me to no end is "missed analysts expectations". I think you would agree that there are very, very few analysts that earn their paychecks in this business. F...! their expectations. It's a joke.
All that said, it's a huge buying opportunity. I said it in an earlier post and I'll say it again. iPod Touch with VOIP, touch based macbooks on the way and god knows what else.
Think PIXAR...hit it out of the park everytime...to the extent the conversation was in the context of "how far" will they hit it out of the park. Jobs behind that and Apple successes. Why?
b/c great product built by the best in the industry is the core philosophy of Jobs and those two companies. That coupled with his remarkable ability to generate unprecedented levels of free PR will continue to keep AAPL on the rise for many years to come.
I actually don't see a major problem with this. I ended up buying long term calls on Apple simply because, with it beating estimates in a down economy, and falling in price at the same time, I think the stock is heavily undervalued with a time horizon of six quarters.
Moreover, I beg to differ with people who say that the iPod story is over. The iPod's penetration in Asian markets is nowhere near what it can be. I think any stagnation in the US markets will be increasingly offset with growth in the Asian markets. Remember, its not that they don't buy iPods because they don't like them there; its because most couldn't afford one. But that story is gradually changing.
I expect new Macbook Pros and Macbooks to be released in the next 3 quarter, probably before the end-of-year buying season. The reduction in gross margin might also signal a competitively priced "Newton". I am more than confident that any reduction in gross margin will be offset by an increase in sales; Apple might just be being conservative on account of the poor state of the economy.
But a $20 reduction in share price through the earning's season is unwarranted.
@ Ninad -
Good points..Asia most specifically. Asia, Europe, South America are all untapped markets. I don't think the iPod story is going to slow in the U.S. - it's merely transforming to the touch which of course is so much more than an ipod.
Further, I strongly believe that Apple has a tremendous product pipeline that will continue to delight and surprise. I wouldn't hold out for a newton even though some reputable rumor sites suggest something like that is on the way. If you think about it the touch/iPhone is everything the Newton was except writing with a stylus. I think we are going to see a minaturized version of macbooks that are tablets and exploit multi-touch as no other pc's have ever done. We'll see...
Andy,
Question for you... Does AAPL, regardless of results, regardless of hour waits for 3G iphone 2 WEEKS#@#!!!!! after launch, regardless of huge international expansion, ever break out from the way the indexes are moving?
Don't you feel this stock is just unbelievably cheap at these prices? And furthermore, shouldn't there be an enormous flight of capital to an equity like AAPL given it's past results, current performance and future opportunities?
I just don't get it... I'd appreciate your take on this...
more apple permabulls, completely uneducated as to what our economy is going through at the moment: a RECESSION. stocks go lower in recessions!
morons.
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